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American manufacturers grew in March at the fastest pace in two and a half years, by one measure, but the conflict with Iran added a new level of uncertainty just as the effects of the Trump tariffs were fading.
US stocks opened higher on Wednesday, extending momentum from the previous session's sharp rally, as investors grew increasingly hopeful that the conflict between the United States and Iran could be nearing an end. Markets were buoyed by comments from Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who indicated that the war could soon wind down, potentially through direct talks with Iranian leadership or a de-escalation without a formal agreement.
Rally likely a "dead cat bounce": The sharp surge across US indices appears driven by short-covering and quarter-end positioning amid optimism over a potential US-Iran de-escalation, rather than a sustainable bullish reversal. Macro and technical backdrop still bearish: Longer-term charts show bearish reversal patterns across major indices, signalling deterioration in the broader uptrend despite the recent rebound.
The figure reported on Wednesday is above economists' estimates of an increase of 40,000 jobs. The prior month's reading was revised higher to a gain of 66,000 jobs.
The Iran war has created an energy supply shock twice the size of the 1973 oil crisis. The disruption will likely outlast any peace deal, with Iran retaining some leverage.
March's nonfarm jobs data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' upcoming report on Friday is projected to show a recovery in added jobs, with a gain of 60,000 jobs after a loss of 92,000, and for the unemployment rate to remain at 4.4%.
Stocks staged a powerful rally as Iran signaled willingness to end the war, with the S&P 500 up 3% and tech leading. Market gains may be capped until oil prices fall meaningfully; WTI crude remains elevated above $102 despite easing from highs.
Labor-market growth concentrated in few industries, and further impact from oil shock could lie ahead.
Markets took a beating in March, thanks to the war with Iran. Commodities surged and cash edged higher, but the rest of the major asset classes fell, in some cases sharply, based on a set of proxy ETFs.
ADP's latest monthly data showed the economy added 62,000 private-sector jobs last month, down slightly from the 66,000 measured by ADP in February.
While energy price volatility and war in the Middle East bring unwelcome memories of 2022 for European investors, the continent has made progress in improving its energy resilience. This is reflected in ECB macroeconomic expectations, which outline a small hit to GDP growth under baseline assumptions.
Sales at U.S. retailers bounced back in February after a brief weak spell, suggesting the economy is still expanding at decent speed despite a turbulent start to the new year.
Futures continued Tuesday's rally before Wednesday's opening bell. Tom White explains how rhetoric from the Trump administration and anticipation of tonight's address from the president add fuel to the gains kicking off a new quarter.
Private job growth totaled 62,000 in March, down just 4,000 from February's upwardly revised level but above the Dow Jones consensus for 39,000, according to ADP. Like February's report, two sectors essentially provided all the gains.
There is little evidence yet that consumers have pulled back on spending, Barkin said.
Owning the S&P 500 index is supposed to expose ETF investors to top stocks. Unfortunately this year, the index is light on the winners.
President Trump is scheduled to give a national address on the Iran war tonight, leading European stock markets to rally at the open as investors cheer hopes of de-escalation.
US stocks are set to extend their rally on Wednesday, 1 April, on hopes of an end to the war in the Middle East. Nasdaq futures were pointing to a 0.9% gain, with Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures up 0.7%.
The stock market bounced driven by Iran war headlines, but the bounce is likely to be short-lived, as the macro situation remains vulnerable. The endgame for the Iran war is still uncertain, and oil prices are likely to remain high even if the war "freezes", which seems to be the current situation.
Volatility is through the roof, and stocks just suffered the worst quarter in almost four years. Yet, global deal volume is surging given a full pipeline of mergers and acquisitions.