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From macro to crypto, Thursday's Big Picture panel from @CharlesSchwab features a broad swath of market takeaways. Joe Mazzola breaks down the latest inflation data, AI capex spending from Mag 7 names and the FOMC's decision to stand put on rates.

The major large-cap US indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Dow) were lower in the first quarter of 2026 along with growth indices which were also lower across the market cap spectrum. Economic data continued to support the narrative of a resilient economy, with the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is in a whipsaw trajectory, trading between 17.32 and 18.73 in today's session alone, a range of 8.2% in this uncertain market climate.

Investors might want to eye oversold stocks like SAP and Rheinmetall, both plays on tech and defense.

Major central banks left interest rates unchanged this week but warned that they could raise them soon to prevent a jump in energy prices, caused by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, spilling over into a surge in broader inflation.

The tech megacaps like Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon raised 2026 capex, as expected. Unlike prior cycles, this increase is subtly different.

The Federal Communications Commission on Thursday voted to advance a proposal to bar all Chinese labs from testing electronic devices such as smartphones, cameras and computers for use in the United States.

Demographic shifts and low affordability are driving a surge in vacant single-family homes and "accidental landlords," especially in former hot markets. PIK loans and "extend & pretend" practices are masking true default rates in private credit, with over a third of software borrower agreements now allowing PIK.

Investors were already uneasy last quarter when Alphabet, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms and Microsoft announced plans to spend a cumulative $650 billion on artificial intelligence in 2026. So when three of the four hyperscalers shared plans to spend even more on Wednesday, those concerns were amplified.

Top hyperscalers—Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet—posted strong earnings and guidance, but surging CapEx raises ROI and sustainability concerns. CapEx projections for 2026 have already been surpassed, with over $700B now expected from these four companies alone.

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index declined by 0.6% in March, reversing a February increase.

Oversubscribed data storage is the cleanest signal on the current state of AI demand. The signal showed up in the latest earnings reports across the AI kings.

The euro zone economy isn't facing stagflation even as growth and inflation risks intensify, European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde said on Thursday.

Chicago grain futures reversed course on Thursday, tracking a retreat in crude oil prices that earlier hit a four-year high.

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett says productivity gains should help keep core prices under control and it would be a mistake for the Federal Reserve and ECB to hike rates during what he sees as a temporary oil shock. Speaking on "Bloomberg Surveillance," Hassett also weighs in on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's plans to stay on at the central bank once his term as chairman ends.
The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits in late April sank to a 57-year low, underscoring the remarkably low level of layoffs in the U.S. economy amid heavy turbulence.

AI is now central to over 28% of the S&P 500's market cap, making its success or failure a systemic market driver. Recent mixed earnings from AI leaders like AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, and META have fueled volatility but do not signal an imminent AI bubble burst.

Reporting from the Cboe, Kevin Hincks dives into a busy slate of economic data including the latest PCE and GDP prints. "None of it really scared the market too much," he adds.

US stocks opened higher on Thursday as investors balanced strong corporate earnings against rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and persistent inflation concerns. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 0.64% or 314 points, while the S&P 500 gained roughly 0.22%.

Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., joins ‘Mornings with Maria' to discuss Kevin Warsh's Fed nomination, credit President Donald Trump for economic gains, outline GOP midterm strategy, and weigh in on crypto, border funding and retirement access.